Divorce Out of Season

The pandemic has made a muddle out of the usual seasonal swings seen in divorce numbers. But what does it mean for America’s families?

To everything there is a season, even in divorce. But the seasons aren’t what they used to be. In pre-pandemic years, March and August/September were the months most likely to see the highest number of divorce filings in any given U.S. jurisdiction. Not so during the pandemic. March of 2020 saw record lows in divorce filings. The low was followed by a very loud echo to the boom of shutdown, with record high filings in the previously slow months of June and July. The general consensus among onlookers was that couples were less likely to split in uncertain times and more willing when they felt the dust had settled.

Then the pandemic wore on. 2021’s numbers almost returned to pre-pandemic normals in March - July, but then began taking a strangely quiet turn in the fall months. In the years to come, these numbers will offer social scientists a wealth of information surrounding human behavior, particularly as it relates to marriage and risk calculation. Will we see an overall trend toward more marriage stability if the pandemic lasts far longer than expected? Will more people choose to marry and settle down if global travel and business remain suppressed? Or will the effects seen in 2020 and 2021 prove to be a passing hiccup in the pre-existing trends of fewer marriages and a 40%-50% average divorce rate?